When the story of Obama's 2008 presidential campaign is written the author(s) will certainly focus on his ability to win over the middle and working-class white voters who had backed Bush in previous elections. States like Pennsylvania and Virginia will come to mind. Win 50 percent of these voters and Obama was guaranteed those battleground states.
African-American History professors may focus on Obama's ability to assuage the concerns of black voters at a pivotal point in his primary battle against Hillary Clinton. South Carolina will certainly come to mind along with Bill Clinton's gaffe there. Win 98 percent of black voters and Obama was certain to put some Southern states in play.
These two constituencies, we will be told, led to Obama's win over John McCain. But don't buy everything you read.
I'm of the opinion that Richard Florida, author of Creative Class and Carnegie Mellon professor, is one of the smartest men in America and I share his belief that place (more specifically, cities) often outweighs plenty of other factors in our society. Even in elections.
In his latest book, Who's Your City?, Florida points out that, "more than 50% of us live in urban regions. These 40 mega regions [around the world], with less than 20% of the population, account for about 2/3 of the world's economic output."
I work with some expert researchers and would hate to put a number on it without the data to back it up, but based on what we do know - Obama won 2/3 voters from 18-29 years old (compared to only half of those older) and won states like Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan on the strength of cities like D.C., Philly, Cleveland and Detroit - I'm willing to speculate that Obama's ability to get approximately 2/3 of the nation's political output (more on this later) out of America's urban regions has made all the difference in his winning this election, even above those middle and working-class whites and black voters.
In short, I believe place, not just people, won this election for Barack Obama. And here's why: cities are made up of three types of people.
1. Young people who migrate to them for college and professional opportunity.
2. Professionals who migrate to them for career advancements and financial gain.
3. Wealthy people who have gained enough money in their careers to stay in them over generations.
By "young people", I'm talking about the people between 18 and 29. I'm talking about people who went to college. College-educated people flock to cities more often than people who did not attend or graduate from college. A very high percentage of these people are white, but the percentage of college-educated blacks and other minorities grows exponentially in cities compared to non-urban areas. Rent in these cities costs several hundreds of dollars a month more than outside of cities, meaning these people can afford to pay $1,000 for a closet-sized apartment in Manhattan or $1,400 for a studio in D.C.
Young people are more liberal than older people. Thus they are less likely to consider a Republican, even Maverick John McCain. Young people have more time on their hands than older people. Thus they are more likely to volunteer. Young people make less money and have fewer living expenses than older people. Thus they are more likely to ditch their jobs for campaign staff jobs or volunteering roles. Basically these people are ready-made Obama supporters. And they were a big reason why Obama was able to get such an organized and amped up campaign staff going in America's big cities.
And credit the Obama campaign for doing such a good job of tailoring messages to this group. They've done a great job of making young urbanites feel good about those $25 political donations not to mention the volunteer numbers that come out of this group of voters. In a way, the Obama campaign emails make you feel like you're not doing enough to make history if you didn't at least volunteer on election day. And it's worked like a charm in cities.
Once you get used to the cost of living in a place like San Francisco or Chicago, it's all too easy to stay and take root in your professional career in the city. You're making more money and you're in the middle of a dating (h)oasis, so why not? Plus, you feel like you're a part of something much bigger than anything your hometown or a small town could offer you.
Again, the Obama campaign - particularly in places like Philadelphia and D.C. - should get a lot of credit for being so well organized in cities, so much so that you would think he was running for mayor in places like Chicago and Raleigh, NC.
I fault the McCain campaign, and the Republican Party as a whole, for not putting nearly enough energy into protecting what few voters they have in cities. If you're a Republican living in a city not named Houston or Dallas or Nashville, you could barely get away with saying you voted for McCain without getting either a blank stare or a judgmental glare.
And as these young people get older and more established in their careers, they become far more likely to stay in cities because that's where the jobs are and that's where like-minded people are and, most of all, because they're waiting much longer to have kids than their parents so moving to the 'burbs or back home doesn't really make sense yet.
Stay in the city. Stay Democrat. It's that simple. No one becomes more conservative by living in a city, why do you think Republicans leave D.C. for greener pastures in Texas or Northern Virginia so often? Because if you're a Republican, it's hard to be yourself in a city. Unless you're the kind of Republican that takes the city for granted or walls yourself off with money and privilege. Which does happen.
Which leads me to the wealthy people. These are the only people who can get away with being Republicans in a city other than the ones I mentioned earlier. These people will benefit from McCain's tax cuts and lose with Obama's tax cuts. These people have made enough friends and had enough success to pad their 401k and bank accounts to the point that they don't need to volunteer or go to happy hour fundraisers to feel good about their contribution to a political campaign. They can just write a check for $500 or $1,000 and call it a year.
The problem with these people is that no one wanted to hear what they think in this election. College students, seniors, hourly workers and minorities all had a greater say in the election of Barack Obama than the people who pay their college tuition, their retirement home living costs and their wages.
And that's how Obama was able to use 2/3 of people living in the city to shut out the other 1/3. He made it feel good for Democrats to get energized and organized in cities. And George Bush's policies made it impossible to say John McCain's name in cities.
Those authors should set aside a special section in the book to credit Obama for knowing this all along. Why else do you think he reminded us that he was from Chicago all those times?
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